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17th Feb 2012, 3:26 AM #261
Orangelink♂

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Alright, here's a list of everyone removing those who are dead and those whom I'm pretty sure (and/or entirely sure) are town:


For now, voting Invader Socks.
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17th Feb 2012, 3:30 AM #262
MatthewJA♂
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I can handle a socks lynch.
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17th Feb 2012, 3:50 AM #263
Sleepy♂

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... Well, take it from the top.

People who are still alive:

Excluding those who have been seer'd:

Excluding specific people:

Ordering those left in sequence based on post count:

EDIT: Oh right, voting. I'd be up for an Invader.Socks lynch right now, actually. At least one of the wolves must have been active. Though now I really want to know who Macey was supposedly stalking...
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17th Feb 2012, 3:58 AM #264
Invader.Socks

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D: But I'm a townie!
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17th Feb 2012, 4:13 AM #265
MatthewJA♂
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I'm just wondering why they killed macey...
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17th Feb 2012, 4:15 AM #266
The Muffinman♂

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maybe they have a seer or stalker role. either that or just random picking. and yay confirmed town.
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17th Feb 2012, 4:19 AM #267
Lawelite♂

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im not quite understanding the socks lynch. although i may be basing my suspisions off of something diffrent.

according to numbers sleepy put up and based on the mafia trying to lie low, the most suspicious people should be kristy, me, master, and Lee. lee doesnt really strike me as suspicious and I believe krisy's being busy. My vote goes to master because I suspect him of being a vegging mafia.
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17th Feb 2012, 4:30 AM #268
MatthewJA♂
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Lawelite:based on the mafia trying to lie low

Who says they'll lie low? I mean come on you have to factor in individual people - if I were mafia, lying low would not work.
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17th Feb 2012, 4:41 AM #269
Kojiru♂

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Ill join the Socks lynch.

Invader.Socks - 4 (Orangelink, MatthewJA, Sleepy, Kojiru)
Master of weirdness - 1 (Lawelite)
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Werewolf and Mafia Games ftw.
17th Feb 2012, 5:09 AM #270
Sleepy♂

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Come to think of it... has anyone else noticed that the Mercenary seems to have succeeded three times in a row in killing someone?

Normally, if the mercenary gets to attack someone every night, he only has a 25% chance of killing someone. The chance of him succeeding three times in a row is 1/64, or 1.5%.

This game may be rather shorter than usual...
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17th Feb 2012, 5:10 AM #271
MatthewJA♂
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I did notice that...

At least they seem to be town aligned
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17th Feb 2012, 5:12 AM #272
Magravan♂
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I'm going to go with Espeh.

I'm under the impression that Ark_Alice was the target, and Frosty just died because he was linked to her... Espeh might have been okay with this, not knowing that Frosty was linked to her... At the very least, I don't agree with her being removed from the potential Mafia list.
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17th Feb 2012, 5:16 AM #273
Sleepy♂

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Check the story again. Frosty died first, Arkalice died second. Usually, the first killed is the one who was targeted, and the lover dies afterwards.

If it's that big an issue, though, we can ask Spinnerlink for clarification.

Spinnerlink, is the order of deaths regarding Frosty and Arkalice indicative of who was targeted by the mafia?
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17th Feb 2012, 5:26 AM #274
Magravan♂
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I would also like to point out that the Conversion probably happened when Nekosuave died... Unfortunately, this puts Kojiru, who recently role revealed into an unfortunate position... I don't know about the rest of you, but I will say that if I knew someone was the Detective (or they were getting fed information from the Detective), they'd be my first choice to convert...

When the conversion goes through, Kojiru will probably be on the top of my list...
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17th Feb 2012, 5:28 AM #275
MatthewJA♂
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I wouldn't convert the detective after they'd publicly rr'd :P
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17th Feb 2012, 5:33 AM #276
Magravan♂
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You wouldn't? Why not? You take one of the best Town assets and turn them into a liability. And in order for the Town to do away with it, they are literally forced to kill their own detective. Or you convert them, find out they aren't, and then they feed you their source, because they have a new win condition that no longer resides with the town. So now we have to use one of our lynchings, or our mercenary (who hopefully is Town aligned, considering the efficacy), in order to take out one of our greatest assets in the game.

Obviously the best thing to do would be to grab someone subtle and let the town think that their Seer had been turned, but I'd rather go for the sure bet, if I were Mafia. I guess that's a tell that you can use in a later game, if you're forced to murder your own role revealing Seer and they turn out to be the convert :D
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Avatar: By Kristy of Wake the Sleepers
17th Feb 2012, 5:34 AM #277
Antihero♂
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Magraven.

Just seems to have very specific theories as to what the Mafia are thinking.

Sorry, Mag.


Scratch that. Just remembered something.

Voting for Espeh. Socks hasn't done anything to elevate him in my mind.
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17th Feb 2012, 5:38 AM #278
Kojiru♂

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Mag, you are still townie right? Just want to make sure. Because I haven't received any conversion PM yet. (Not saying it's not going to happen, but it hasn't yet.)
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Werewolf and Mafia Games ftw.
17th Feb 2012, 5:39 AM #279
MatthewJA♂
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I second Manly Man's question... your post doesn't really make sense... ninjaaaas

And his manliness causes me to


e: Switching to Antihero

ee: @magravan I'd rather convert someone and trick the town into thinking I converted the detective :D
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17th Feb 2012, 6:03 AM #280
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I have no objection to asking Magravan the question, but I don't see what's wrong with his logic. Convert the seer, force the town to kill him. If the supposed seer's running a con (like how Espeh masqueraded as the seer for tres in Werewolf XI), the wolves know who the real seer is. If the supposed seer is actually another role (like Linden), they still get to force the town to sacrifice an asset.

If you want to take a risk, it's best to convert someone else quietly and let the town off their own seer/role. But if the wolves want to play it safe (which they usually do; risk and reward looks a lot different when you have 3 people total, not 22), converting the seer isn't a bad option, especially if you want their shiny, shiny role info. If Kojiru manages to find the guardian or something, the wolves basically win. Also, the wolves had no way to know that I'd ask Kojiru to make it public, and Kojiru would waste the one successful role identification on a villager (if it was successful).
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Forum > Forum games > Mafia XVIII
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