Somehow when I saw meager posted, I just knew he'd vote me... ^^;
Anyways, I went back and looked at the votes, and noticed something weird, and have a certain suspicion now. Now, I'm still really new to heavy-analysis in Werewolf games. I've played other games before, and hosted one or two, but those didn't include this kind of analysis. In fact, once we ended a game in just two rounds through pure luck. However, I'm about 80% sure about my current suspect: Capps. Here's what I've noticed:
-In the first round, he voted for Edi-san last. However, although this could be a fatal move if Edi was the mercenary (as stated by meager), there was one problem: Edi-san had already alluded to being the sheriff and not the mercenary:
edi-san:My argument was that the power roles, if revealed, can coordinate. With a sheriff, and possibly a mercenary and Vigilante (not sure if vigilantes still choose their side, or what), A lot can be done in a day to thin out the villager crowd.
This is something most people would have skimmed over. However, the word "possibly" is a big red flag: Edi-san knew there was a sheriff, but nothing else. At that point, he already had five votes, so he probably saw no point in carefully avoiding a major hint like that. And then, the very next post, Capps voted for him. (See Page 3)
-In the second day, he suddenly hopped on the Antihero vote, and then a third vote came from Lady, creating an unexpected tie with Hedge. In the end, Antihero was killed. However, Hedge was then killed by the werewolves, which leads to the events of Day 3.
-In Day 3, Capps started out by saying how it seemed like a set-up:
Mr. Capps:That night kill means one of two things. Someone on the hedgewagon yesterday is a wolf and really wanted hedge killed for some reason, or the wolves are trying to frame someone who voted hedge.
The question is, which is it?
When I first saw that, I was surprised and instantly wondered if he might be right about it being a set-up. He then went on to make this post:
Mr. Capps:The more and more I think about the hedge kill, the more I think it was a frame setup. And out of everyone who was on the hedgewagon ark seems like the one that someone would use this to frame, since Mag has said she seems suspicious. Not saying Mag himself is a wolf, but it seems they could be using his suspicion and this night kill as a setup to lynch ark.
But if any of this is true, they should have made their move by now.
On the other hand, why would the wolves frame her in the first place? Seems pretty pointless, so maybe someone on the hedgewagon really is a wolf and really wanted hedge dead for some reason. But the frame scenario seems more probable to me.
So I am still pretty unsure about all of this.
I have to agree: setting up ArkAlice DOES seem pointless... Which could be the precise point. By mentioning this outright, he could potentially divert some attention away from himself so we wouldn't be too suspicious of him. Some of us might feel a pang of subconscious understanding and agreement, and think he's innocent if he's so blunt. He puts doubt in our mind, but for some people it would actually sway us into believing him.
I admit, I might be just seriously overthinking this. I tend to overthink a lot of things, and like I said before, I'm still new to the analysis thing. However, right now my biggest suspect is
Capps, and thus my vote goes to him.