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24th Jan 2011, 6:41 AM #201
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Magravan:Well, Ranger's like that... He also said "Don't lynch ICE!" a couple of times, and we all know how that turned out... Both times... ;P
As mentioned, that's the exception to the rule. ;) Without Ice, my town-reads would have a 100% accuracy rate.

Still might want to be a little less pushy though ;D )
Yeah, I didn't realize the ambiguity until after I had said it. But, yeah. Other players can ignore my reads for as long as I'm alive. And I strongly encourage and expect them to.

*massive angsty ramble deleted*

When I'm dead, though...that's different. My alignment (town) is known. I don't expect people to follow dead-Ranger like a scripture, but I do expect dead-Ranger to not be completely disregarded.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:41 AM #202
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If Ranger dies, and he's a wolf, I am NOT voting for Magravan (probably).
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24th Jan 2011, 6:44 AM #203
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ranger_brian_new:
Magravan:Well, Ranger's like that... He also said "Don't lynch ICE!" a couple of times, and we all know how that turned out... Both times... ;P
As mentioned, that's the exception to the rule. ;) Without Ice, my town-reads would have a 100% accuracy rate.

Still might want to be a little less pushy though ;D )
Yeah, I didn't realize the ambiguity until after I had said it. But, yeah. Other players can ignore my reads for as long as I'm alive. And I strongly encourage and expect them to.

*massive angsty ramble deleted*

When I'm dead, though...that's different. My alignment (town) is known. I don't expect people to follow dead-Ranger like a scripture, but I do expect dead-Ranger to not be completely disregarded.


Well, I don't think that we'll achieve the same level of success that my "Vote for whoever the dead person suggested" luck, but I doubt that your commentary will be completely disregarded by everyone.
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24th Jan 2011, 7:01 AM #204
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Little confused. Why is cyborg being lynched again?
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24th Jan 2011, 7:16 AM #205
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Ranger_brian_new - don't take what I'm about to say the wrong way, please. I'm not meaning to imply or insinuate that what I'm about to say is your objective. Alright? Thanks.

Also - I'd like to say that I find your analysis all to be very interesting - however, for all that I know it could be conjecture; I haven't looked at the other games. I doubt this, though...I think you're being genuine, and I think that that's very good.
I also realise that, armed with such knowledge and powers of persuasion, you could easily turn the town on each other. You're observing everybody...

...and I am too.




Read this part:
People: Vote for yourselves! Don't listen to anybody else! Either they are:

A) Misinformed, leading to a bad decision.
B) Deliberately misinforming, leading to a bad decision.
C) Guessing, leading to a bad decision.

Think! Vote accordingly! Stop listening now!








...did it work?







I'm also going to say that, to me, anybody who is trying to convince others vehemently to lynch somebody else...well, it's either noble or underhanded - and suspicious either way. If, however, I were to suggest actions against them - well then, I'd be putting in my lot with theirs.
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24th Jan 2011, 7:24 AM #206
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Kristy:I agree with Magravan. I'm not seeing a new process of analysis. It's the same old thing so far.
I'm still working on it. But the thing is, I have problems. One of them being, my reputation. That reputation holds me back. If people just disregarded it all, I think I might be able to do better.

Though that alone wouldn't be the magical fix-it-all. I have other issues, too, which I'm trying to work on. Being more open-minded is a huge one.

Simply put, I know I'm a bit of a messed up player, and I'm trying to work out all the flaws and eliminate them, while incorporating my strengths and enforcing them.

I consider my town-reads to be one of my strengths. With the exception of Ice-related incidents, they've been 100% accurate. Now, obviously, I could be wrong about them and as the Ice-related incidents prove, I have been.

I consider my form of analysis to be part of my style. That, itself, I don't think I'll change. I'll refine my technique and such, improve it, but I don't think my Wolf Hunting process will be fundamentally altered.
How I use it? How it's applied, how I speak, how it influences the game, etc.? I think THAT should change, though. Part of the problem seems to be that my weak reads have TOO much influence on the game. I think if I refine my presentation, well...that I'll be a better player. In as many ways as possible. Thing is, there's a difference between saying something and actually doing it.

I WANT to get that done, to change. It's hard, though.

Matt:And wolf or not wolf, your behaviour is really suspicious. You seem so intent that I'm a wolf, and Magravan isn't. The only people who know for sure are the wolves, even the seer isn't infallible. Thus, my vote remains on you. Enough reasoning?
If you were ignoring everything I've been saying? Sure, yeah, why not? Makes sense! I mean, totally, nobody could have that strong of a read unless they're a wolf!

If you were paying attention at all? Nope, your poor reasoning for voting me is still poor.

Strong reads are a fundamental part of my style. I definitely need to change my wolf-reads to make sure it's clear they're not solid (it's all in the wording?), but I'm not sure if I'll ever change my town-read strength, because...because...well...I can't put it into words.

Though, theoretically, let's just disregard known playstyles and past games altogether and go off of this game alone (something I personally abhor the thought of, but hey, keeping an open mind!):
What motivation as a wolf do I have to state my reads with such confidence? ESPECIALLY when I'm saying that they're town? Not wolf.
There's ONLY one.
"Well, you're both wolves, and you're defending your comrade!"
Am I wrong? That that's the only reason that a wolf-me from this game alone would state a town-read so confidently?

Now, think about it from the town perspective.
What motivation as a town player do I have to state my reads with such confidence?
Especially when I say they're town?
-I could be a role.
-I could suspect they are a role.
-I could just be that confident in my reads.

And those three are just the three which come off the top of my head.

So, tell me, again, Matt:
What makes my confident read in Magravan suspicious to you? Am I wrong, that the only wolf motivation would be to protect a buddy? Do explain.

The fact is, working from this game alone, there's only one (very absurd) reason I'd do it as a wolf, and multiple reasons I could do it as town. From this game alone, that'd theoretically make it a town-tell. Throw in past games, and it's a null-tell.

But in no way could it be a wolf-tell. Unless you can prove the above wrong. Can you?

Magravan:but I doubt that your commentary will be completely disregarded by everyone.
And that is all I ever ask. If people promised me that after I died, they wouldn't disregard what I said, they'd respect that I truly and honestly believed every word I said and respect that I hold that opinion?

I wouldn't care WHAT happened to me. Because that's exactly what I've always wanted: to be just another guy, with an opinion, which should be respected. Not disregarded, nor followed as holy law. Just one guy's thoughts on the game, to be considered every day from his death onward.
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24th Jan 2011, 7:33 AM #207
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It's the name of the game... If we don't vote, it goes to a coin toss. Either way, someone's going to hang, so don't judge him too harshly for trying to pick the best option. We're probably a little overly rough on him about his short comings in the past, and ultimately finger pointing is a necessary part of the game.

Except for the last game, he's trying his best to help the town (Through Science!), even if he sometimes gets tripped up. I think that the tendency for villagers to be afraid to stand up and accuse someone else is one of the reason that the town tends to end up as a bunch of sheep though... So I think that rather than judging people harshly for trying to direct eithers, be wary of those who allow others to think for them...

After all, when the wolves come knocking, I wouldn't want to be a sheep.

I thought that last bit was rather clever, considering the fact that we're in the process of being murdered by gun toting werewolves...
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"Beautiful Speech, Magravan", 24th Jan 2011, 7:36 AM #208
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No wonder you're a Writer. :P
Magravan:After all, when the wolves come knocking, I wouldn't want to be a sheep.
Made me laugh. ;)
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24th Jan 2011, 9:21 AM #209
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Magravan:So I think that rather than judging people harshly for trying to direct eithers, be wary of those who allow others to think for them...


I'm not certain if this was directed at me, but I'm sure the feeling's out there, so:

Sorry, I didn't mean to make it seem like RBN's fault - or that he was in the wrong - at all! I had intended, as I think you do, to make people think for themselves.

By all means, listen to his analysis, people - but don't blindly accept it as truth; figure it in with your view of things and come to an according decision.


Or, don't - I don't really care. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice...






Also, heheh...sheep...
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24th Jan 2011, 10:17 AM #210
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Goodness, you lot are a talkative bunch. I think Magravan was right. You must have really missed Werewolf :D

I'm kind of worried that I might accidentally mess up the vote count now though, with so many pages to check. I'll have to do it a second time to make sure, ahaha.
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24th Jan 2011, 1:04 PM #211
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I've been skimming everything in this thread and just now decided that the only way to avoid bluffs, double bluffs, triple bluffs, lies, suspicion and crushing betrayal (possibly) is to vote for people with the least amount of reasoning possible.

... starting tomorrow.
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24th Jan 2011, 1:49 PM #212
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You want clarification Ranger?

The half town/half day thing was a joke. A fun little play on words. I like to do stuff like that some times.

Which plays into the next point: I want you dead for reasons similar to Magravan's logic, in that your dangerous. In a way that can make the came less fun. I can't even make a little joke without having to come back and clarify it 3 times or else get lynched.

DerrickMichael5:Little confused. Why is cyborg being lynched again?

Because apparently everyone's assuming I turned into a wolf and shot someone. I'm not even going to start into what's wrong with that.
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24th Jan 2011, 4:54 PM #213
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I'm actually going to break my own rule and vote on the first day, mostly because everyone has been talking so much so I have more info than usual on the first day. So, I'm voting for Ranger. For a bunch of reasons that have already been stated, and then because he has changed his vote 3 times now, which I don't like.

So the count now, if I'm not mistaken, is

Salty-1 (Sarge)
Bio-1 (adam)
Cyborg-5 (Salty, lala, Antihero, Magravan, Ranger)
Rhaimes-1 (Jrade)
MatthewJA-1 (Rhaimes)
Ranger-5 (Macey, MattewJA, Hedge, Cyborg, Shaggers)
MatthewJA-1 (Ranger)

Refuse-to-vote: 5 (Kristy, Derrick, Espeh, Jacob, Leiko)
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24th Jan 2011, 6:10 PM #214
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Shaggers:I'm actually going to break my own rule and vote on the first day, mostly because everyone has been talking so much so I have more info than usual on the first day. So, I'm voting for Ranger. For a bunch of reasons that have already been stated, and then because he has changed his vote 3 times now, which I don't like.

Salty-1 (Sarge)
Bio-1 (adam)
Cyborg-5 (Salty, lala, Antihero, Magravan, Ranger)
Rhaimes-1 (Jrade)
MatthewJA-1 (Rhaimes)
Ranger-5 (Macey, MattewJA, Hedge, Cyborg, Shaggers)
MatthewJA-1 (Ranger)
Refuse-to-vote: 5 (Kristy, Derrick, Espeh, Jacob, Leiko)
Alright, this is wrong. So wrong.
[1]He admits to breaking his own rule.
[2]The reasons stated have been addressed, and mainly shot down. My request for new insight has now twice been ignored, meaning they're sheeping to a case that the creator no longer believes in.
[3]That ties the votes. Again.
[4]I've changed my vote from Espeh (placeholder grudge-vote) to MatthewJA (suspect # 1), one vote change. Then from MatthewJA to Cyborg (still a suspect, #3), two vote changes. No more. EDIT: Whoops. I forgot about my Magravan vote, heh. I didn't remember that. Still, though...
And even if though I had have done it three times...
Shaggers: What is wrong with a logical change in vote, which I've well-explained the reasoning for? Is there something inheritantly wrong with changing your vote?
I'll answer for ya: No, there isn't. Only when you change your vote with poor (or no) reasoning does it become noteworthy. My changes have been logical, so I'll ask again: what makes the changes suspicious?

Shaggers SKYROCKETS up the suspect list for that move.
I'll address Cyborg soon.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:17 PM #215
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Cyborg_572:The half town/half day thing was a joke. A fun little play on words. I like to do stuff like that some times.
I'm afraid I don't see what you're talking about.

I want you dead for reasons similar to Magravan's logic, in that your dangerous. In a way that can make the came less fun.
This is not what I asked for, Cyborg. I asked for NEW insight. This is the SAME insight, when Magravan has changed his opinion, recognizing that I'm trying to change my play to be less damaging to the game's entertainment value.

NO NEW INSIGHT ON THIS SINGLE POINT HAS BEEN GIVEN.
That's the reason for AT LEAST two of the votes on me. "Oh, he's Ranger. He's dangerous as both alignments, and needs to die. Besides, even if he wasn't, he ruins the game's fun for people."

That's the only argument they've made. When I addressed all of those points, NOBODY HAS COUNTERED THEM, INSTEAD ONLY REPEATING THEM OVER AGAIN.

That, my friends, is a wolf move. There is no town motivation to keep your vote on someone when your reasoning has been countered. Which it has been.

This applies to Matt, Cyborg, and now Shaggers as well.
Macey voted for me semi-randomly, and Hedge sneaked his vote in for no apparent reason. The other three? Are voting me for obsolete reasons, which have been addressed already, countered, and never had the counters re-countered. All they've done?
Is restate the same argument, nothing new added to it.
All they've done?
Is repeat themselves needlessly.
All they've done?
Is give the illusion of an argument with merit, when it in fact has none.

There's wolves in that wagon. No doubt about it.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:18 PM #216
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One thing though, Ranger... I don't disbelieve my points... My vote change was primarily due to the fact that you aren't going to be able to play in next game either because you're narrating it, and much like you guys backed off from Hedge because he had died earlier the previous game, I didn't want to ruin your experience.

I still believe my points, I was just trying to give you the benefit of the doubt so far as having changed your style... But it's still primarily a mercy because you're not able to play next game either.

Sorry, just wanted to make it clearer why I changed my vote.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:19 PM #217
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For the record, you have until the hour to finalise your votes. If I give you a full 24 hours to make them, then the update time will probably slip further and further back each day unless I risk having to start writing/drawing the phase over again :P

To clarify: ALL PHASES LAST FOR 23 HOURS. ANY VOTES OR ACTIONS PERFORMED AFTER THOSE 23 HOURS ARE UP WILL NOT COUNT

Anyway, this is how things currently stand, please correct me if I've made a mistake anywhere;

Total: 19
Withheld – 5 (Kristy, Derrick, Espeh, Leiko, Jacob)
Salty – 1 (Sarge)
Cyborg – 5 (Salty, Lala, Antihero, Magravan, Ranger)
Bio – 1 (Adam)
Ranger – 5 (Macey, MatthewJA, Hedge, Cyborg, Shaggers)
Rhaimes – 1 (Jrade)
MatthewJA – 1 (Rhaimes)

Votes:
Ranger votes for Espeh
Sarge votes for Salty
Salty votes for Cyborg
Adamisgr8 votes for Bio
Magravan votes for Ranger
Lala votes for Cyborg
MatthewJA votes for Magravan
Jrade votes for Rhaimes
Macey votes for Ranger
Ranger changes his vote to Magravan
Kristy withholds her vote
Rhaimes votes for MatthewJA
Derrick withholds his vote
Antihero votes for Cyborg
Espeh withholds her vote
Matthew changes his vote to Ranger
Ranger changes his vote to MatthewJA
Magravan changes his vote to Cyborg
Leiko withholds her vote
Hedge votes for Ranger
Shaggers withholds his vote
Cyborg votes for Ranger
Range changes his vote to Cyborg
Shaggers votes for Ranger
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24th Jan 2011, 6:23 PM #218
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Magravan:One thing though, Ranger... I don't disbelieve my points... I still believe my points, I was just trying to give you the benefit of the doubt so far as having changed your style... But it's still primarily a mercy because you're not able to play next game either.

Sorry, just wanted to make it clearer why I changed my vote.
Okay, so my wording of you not believing the points anymore was a bit extreme. I realize you still believe 'em, of course, but the bolded is what's been ignored. I'm putting in the effort to change my style. To not damage the game's entertainment, to not be a threat to my team. And you recognize that. You recognize that I'm trying to change, and are willing to give me the chance, even though I historically HAVE been what has been said of me, a person who impacts the entertainment of the game and a risk to my side.

...They haven't. The fact that they've ignored that YOU did the above is telling itself, that they are not listening, that they are ignoring it all, instead just repeating the same mantra over and over again. Without adding anything new. Without acknowledging the first person to bring it up's current stance, which the bolded emphasizes.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:34 PM #219
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I said that I was gone half a day and that half the town voted for me, and the I said it was a good thing I wasn't gone a whole day. Literary symmetry (or whatever the proper term is) based on the form of the previous sentence implies that had I been gone the whole day the whole town would have voted for me. See? A JOKE. WORDPLAY. Maybe not hilarious, but I type these things when they come to me.

As for the Magravan thing: Even though Magravan changed his vote, he still hit on some good points. He might be willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, but that doesn't mean everyone else should to. His observations were objective, his current stance is subjective. Magravan just happened to be the first to point the facts out, not the only one to notice. So regardless of his take the objective bit is still good. Good enough to add some justification to a self defense vote anyway. If you want some new insight replace dangerous with "frustrating" as well. For an example of why see the above paragraph dissecting and explaining a joke I made 3 pages back. (I did not count, I picked 3 at random as being close enough). This is just like the last time when I needed 3 extra posts to explain the use of the term "Internal Randomizer" which was just an attempt to stick to the whole Cyborg character thing when making a random selection on day one.

Which reminds me, I've played a total of 3 or 4 rounds of this game before. During that time I was a seer who had seen the wolves, and was fighting recklessly for a lynch to end the game. That's hardly a good indicator of my playstyle. Then there were the jokes you made at the end of the one game, most of which were followed by a "cyborg knows what I'm talking about" when I, in fact, did not. I really don't think know me as well as you think you do.
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24th Jan 2011, 6:35 PM #220
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MatthewJA
Shaggers
Cyborg
Hedge
Macey*
Lala*
Salty*
Antihero
(*Rough estimate; not exact.)
Leiko
Jacob
Espeh
Derrick
Sarge
adam
Jrade
Rhaimes
Kristy
Magravan

This is how the list stands, now, roughly. Top are most suspicious, bottom are most suspicious, middle are neutral.
EDIT: In light of Cyborg's above post, he's dropped below Shaggers, however, still needs to elaborate. When he's unclear, I ask for him to make himself clear. Which I don't see as unreasonable. I'm trying to understand him, which is extremely pro-town to do, in my mind, to keep that open mind and see what they are thinking, which is currently not clear to me.
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