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3rd Jun 2012, 3:49 AM #141
Broken CL4P-TP

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Hmm...Hey Frosty, you've been on and you've been making posts but from what I can tell you haven't been voting or even abstaining, any reason why?
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3rd Jun 2012, 4:00 AM #142
Sabrini Fur
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I like how there's no votes yet.
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3rd Jun 2012, 4:23 AM #143
Sleepy

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Okay, pretty sure that was the real conversion, this time.

All we really know about the mafia right now is that they targeted me the first night. Not much, but it's a weak point in favor of the mafia being newer players. So I'm going to put a quick vote on KoriCongo for now, and hope that gets the voting started.
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3rd Jun 2012, 6:16 AM #144
KoriCongo

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My vote goes to NekoSuave It's a little hard to believe she was protected by the guardian for 2 reasons. 1) Wouldn't a notice be on the night-to-day report say something about it. In every game before, the guardian, when protecting, would always have a notice saying The Guardian is protecting ____ tonight in some way or form. 2) It's a little odd how she blurts out she was protected. The main point of being protected is to prove your a townie/student. Saying you were protected by the guardian doesn't do any favors but raise your suspicion levels. That's why I'm going after her.

And Sleepy, how do you get that the mafia has beginners. This could be some elaborate plot by the mafia to get us to lynch each others faster.
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3rd Jun 2012, 6:41 AM #145
MatthewJA
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In every game before, the guardian, when protecting, would always have a notice saying The Guardian is protecting ____ tonight in some way or form.


Not always. I don't really do that any more in my games, for one. And also, in Sprite's prior games when Guardianness is announced in phase, if there's nobody being guarded it specifically says that, Sprite's Werewolf XVII for example. So Neko could have easily been guarded. And we know that the assassin doesn't have a 100% kill chance - so that might just have failed normally.

I will admit it is kind of odd that she said she was attacked though. It seems kind of pointless when the only thing it shows is that she is not the assassin.
UNLESS SHE IS THE ASSASSIN AND IS LYING

Anyway so I should probably get to voting

Back before everyone abstained all the time, bandwagons were a place to hunt mafia. Intersecting the taowagon with people who haven't voted with abstainers from yesterday (up to my post about it): NekoSuave, Claptrap, Kojiru

I'm gonna be voting Kojiru for now.
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3rd Jun 2012, 6:42 AM #146
Sleepy

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Um. Nekosuave was never protected by the guardian (and I'm not sure I was either). She just said she got targeted by the assassin, who only has a 25% chance to succeed. Furthermore, she has never claimed that she got protected by the guardian; I mentioned it as a possibility in regards to myself.
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3rd Jun 2012, 6:44 AM #147
MatthewJA
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I am still fairly sure that you fell under the whole "sheriff defends night actions" thing
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3rd Jun 2012, 6:52 AM #148
Sleepy

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Yeah, probably. I think that's how it works, anyway, since they failed to break the door instead of being driven off by someone.

KoriCongo, I don't know for certain that the mafia has beginners in it. But targeting me on the first night is a rather unusual move, and could be explained by the mafia not being familiar with the game.

As for why it's an unusual move, it's about risk and benefit. If the mafia manages to take out a good (well, decent) player, sure. But with two protective roles running about, the risk of losing a night kill is pretty high, and a experienced player would likely try to avoid that by picking a less high-profile target.

Theoretically, a player might have had other reasons that made killing me a worthwhile prospect. For example, Orangelink could have decided to try and off me the first night because we tend to spot each other as mafia fairly quickly. Or MatthewJA could be up to shenanigans. But I'm going with the "new mafia" theory for now, because I think it's just as likely, if not more.
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3rd Jun 2012, 7:07 AM #149
Kojiru

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I feel so betrayed Matt D:


Also, im getting this sudden sense of deja-vu, like this happened a few mafia games ago....
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3rd Jun 2012, 7:20 AM #150
Broken CL4P-TP

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Right now I am kinda torn between Kojiru and KoriCongo because while what MatthewJA is saying is making sense (especially after noticing that he was still on a major wagon on the first day) I am also thinking that there was a sudden vote to save Kori yesterday when he was in danger and if he turns up mafia then we might have some clues as to where to go from there.

I think that I am going to vote KoriCongo for now

this is subject to edits

EDIT: my bad read post 159
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3rd Jun 2012, 8:16 AM #151
Antihero
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I'm thinking Neko, simply for claiming she'd been targeted by the assassin. It seems a little odd. I mean, why point that out? All it does is draw attention to herself...
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3rd Jun 2012, 8:27 AM #152
The Muffinman

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I think I'm going to vote KoriCongo. While I'm not sure about the whole 'new mafia' thing, it did seem like Kori was protected that last phase. If he comes up mafia, that could lead to some fairly good clues. May change if something pops up.
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3rd Jun 2012, 8:32 AM #153
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Gonna have to vote for KoriCongo. Like the others have said, it seemed that people were trying to save him during the previous day phase. That, and the reasoning for his vote has a glaring issue...I said I was targeted by the assassin, not the Guardian. >_>

Also, as for why I told you guys I was targeted, I thought that it would be a good idea to let you guys know at the time. All it showed, however, is that the assassin does not have a 100% kill chance. Not sure if that was enough to warrant it, especially now that it's drawn attention to myself. :/
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3rd Jun 2012, 9:05 AM #154
Kojiru

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Okay, going to vote now and head to bed. Between KoriCongo and Neko, I'm going to vote KoriCongo. I think Neko was genuinely trying to help us, granted the merc varies between games, we know it doesn't have a 100% kill rate (thank goodness) and it notifies players if they were attacked.

The tug of war voting was very interesting yesterday, and this lynch should give us some much needed insightful information since apparently the mafia/merc cant kill anything this game. Which has been odd anyways. Also, remember the conversion.
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3rd Jun 2012, 11:19 AM #155
Antihero
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NekoSuave:Also, as for why I told you guys I was targeted, I thought that it would be a good idea to let you guys know at the time. All it showed, however, is that the assassin does not have a 100% kill chance. Not sure if that was enough to warrant it, especially now that it's drawn attention to myself. :/


I'm just thinking that if it were me, I'd only mention it if I were mafia. Sort of to say: "hey, look! I was targeted! I'm a victim, not a killer!" that's all...
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3rd Jun 2012, 11:28 AM #156
mushroomisland

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NekoSuave. It seems suspicious that he would tell everyone that he was attacked. Knowing that information certainly doesn't help us much. It only clears him out of being "mafia". But that exactly is how a mafia would act to keep himself alive.

Plus I dont wanna go on a giant bandwagon against Kori.
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3rd Jun 2012, 1:21 PM #157
Sleepy

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KoriCongo - 5 (Sleepy, Broken CL4P-TP, The Muffinman, Nekosuave, Kojiru)
Nekosuave - 3 (KoriCongo, Antihero, mushroomisland)
Kojiru - 1 (MatthewJA)
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3rd Jun 2012, 3:56 PM #158
KoriCongo

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Hmmm. Ok. I understand this. But I don't understand how you guys said my previous vote was a safety vote. I was one of the first against Tao, not the last. It doesn't add up really. If Sleepy's "new mafia" theory is correct, what good will I have getting Sleepy off. If you look around, ALL YOU GUYS ARE SOMEWHAT ADVANCE OR EXPERT PLAYERS!.

Edit: Sure it was pretty close and the Taowagon seem more on safety on me, but I honestly thought Tao was mafia or at least Assassin. And ok. I see how on the guardian claim was wrong. But seriously, who says that they were targeted. Think about witness protection programs. You go into hiding, not say out loud, to the public, that someone tried to kill you. Doing that makes the killer more easily find you and kill you.

If I was part of the "new mafia", a good choice would of been Frosty to kill or convert. He's one of the best and holds a can hold a grudge against those who choose to lynch him. It makes more sense to go against the more experience player first, then go down the ladder. Unless Frosty is mafia, which I find unlikely, then going against Sleepy first makes little sense.

And for the second night, either someone went against sabrini fur and fail or try to convert us. I find the Sabrini Fur theory a little more likely if the mafia isn't a "new mafia". Who tries to convert on the second night? I could be wrong so correct me if I am.

And with that I eat my muffin and storm to my room. " I can't believe you guys!" I said.
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3rd Jun 2012, 4:19 PM #159
Broken CL4P-TP

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Hmm....I just realized that I may have screwed up a little bit, after reviewing the way that the votes came in the other day I think that I got the tao votes mixed up with the KoriCongo votes, the only time that someone voted tao when Kori would've been lynched is the final vote that Orangelink made.... meaning that there actually isn't that much information that can be pulled from this particular instance.

The way that the votes fell it is actually more that people were attempting to save tao not KoriCongo,
I blame this lack of reasoning from the previous evening on a lack of sleep and I believe that should KoriCongo be innocent I may end up looking for mafia in the people who voted for him today based on my mistake,

I am going to change my vote to Frosty just because I don't like how he's been active and not doing anything and my information that I based my KoriCongo vote on isn't very accurate.
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3rd Jun 2012, 4:34 PM #160
Sabrini Fur
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KoriCongo - 4 (Sleepy, The Muffinman, Nekosuave, Kojiru)
Nekosuave - 3 (KoriCongo, Antihero, mushroomisland)
Kojiru - 1 (MatthewJA)
Frosty - 1 (Broken CL4P-TP)
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